Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.491979 1.556853 1.624244 1.699709 1.782147 1.869796 1.970468
2026-01-11 1.412078 1.497968 1.590110 1.696990 1.818441 1.953260 2.115823
2026-01-18 1.357506 1.458030 1.568549 1.700335 1.854949 2.032907 2.256805
2026-01-25 1.293314 1.401558 1.522714 1.670189 1.847484 2.057442 2.330909
2026-02-01 1.250726 1.366408 1.498020 1.661316 1.862229 2.106833 2.436677
2026-02-08 1.212415 1.333688 1.473602 1.650114 1.871794 2.148548 2.534061
2026-02-15 1.177560 1.303055 1.449611 1.637233 1.877247 2.183859 2.624214
2026-02-22 1.155080 1.285878 1.440529 1.641536 1.903686 2.246928 2.756753
2026-03-01 1.117507 1.248857 1.405406 1.610902 1.882355 2.243724 2.793085
2026-03-08 1.087706 1.220204 1.379381 1.590410 1.872809 2.255224 2.850935
2026-03-15 1.063791 1.197914 1.360326 1.577803 1.872700 2.279145 2.928808
2026-03-22 1.056062 1.195274 1.365658 1.596930 1.916294 2.367500 3.115999
2026-03-29 1.049352 1.194079 1.373233 1.619990 1.967587 2.472468 3.346771
2026-04-05 1.031750 1.178449 1.361489 1.616219 1.980208 2.519726 3.484851
2026-04-12 1.017717 1.166866 1.354484 1.618391 2.001178 2.580954 3.655711
2026-04-19 0.992322 1.139986 1.326517 1.590358 1.976066 2.567021 3.683969
2026-04-26 0.976002 1.124397 1.312986 1.581890 1.979522 2.599168 3.805054
2026-05-03 0.959760 1.108476 1.298499 1.571426 1.979243 2.624811 3.916401
2026-05-10 0.943764 1.092479 1.283434 1.559515 1.976012 2.644991 4.019046
2026-05-17 0.934486 1.085008 1.279549 1.563320 1.997003 2.707670 4.222495
2026-05-24 0.913896 1.062188 1.254273 1.535309 1.966735 2.678646 4.216255
2026-05-31 0.897459 1.044568 1.235709 1.516550 1.950380 2.673332 4.264511
2026-06-07 0.884259 1.030990 1.222360 1.504998 1.944987 2.687235 4.360400